Fears of ‘catastrophic success’ in post-Assad Syria

The brutal 54-year reign of the Assad household in Syria seems to be over.

In a matter of days, opposition forces took the most important metropolis of Aleppo earlier than advancing southward into different government-controlled areas of Hama, Homs, and eventually, on December 7, 2024, the capital, Damascus.

The offensive was all of the extra astonishing on the condition that the 13-year civil war had largely been in a stalemate since a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey. Stories recommend President Bashar al-Assad has resigned and left the nation. However, what has he left behind and what occurs subsequent?

As a professional on Center East safety, I imagine the opposition forces’ capacity to keep up unity can be crucial within the transition to a post-Assad Syria. For the reason that civil warfare began in 2011, the various opposition factions in Syria have been fractured by ideological variations and the pursuits of exterior backers—and that is still true regardless of their present victory.

In the meantime, the fast change of fortunes in Syria’s civil warfare poses severe questions for these international locations, which have backed one aspect or the opposite within the battle. For Iran and Russia, the autumn of their ally Assad will injury regional aspirations.

For the backers of parts of the opposition—notably Turkey but additionally the US, each of which keeps a navy presence in Syria—there can be challenges, too.

‘Catastrophic success’

Iran, the US, Russia, and Turkey have been essential gamers all through Syria’s civil warfare.

The latest opposition offensive got here as Assad’s three key allies—Russia, Iran, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah—had been stretched skinny. Russia’s attention to Ukraine and Iran’s setbacks from Israeli strikes have restricted their capacity to supply Assad sturdy help, whereas Hezbollah appeared hesitant to commit further fighters because it had been carried out beforehand.

Then, on Dec. 2, as opposition forces had been on the transfer, Russia started withdrawing naval property from its strategic Mediterranean base at Tartus, Syria. This erosion of exterior backing considerably undermined Assad’s capability to regroup and mount an efficient counteroffensive.

The US will little doubt welcome this diminished Russian and Iranian influence in Syria. However, concern in Washington has already been aired over a state of affairs of “catastrophic success,” wherein Assad is changed by an Islamist group that many within the West see as terrorists.

It was members of the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that spearheaded a lot of the opposition good points in Syria, preventing alongside the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military.

And whereas Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has circuitously focused the US troops stationed within the northeast—which is underneath the management of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces—instability and the potential for clashes between opposition factions and US allies might enhance the dangers for the 900 Syria-based American personnel.

A fragmented panorama

The truth that completely different opposition teams have taken management of assorted once-government-held areas factors to an important reality: Syria is de facto partitioned. The northwest is managed by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military. The northeast is underneath the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the US.

Regardless of a shared objective of ousting Assad and the joint offensive on Aleppo, conflicts between Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian Nationwide Military are frequent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, has goals to claim management over opposition-held areas, together with these presently managed by the Syrian Nationwide Military.

And the Syrian Nationwide Military and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham keep complicated, usually conflicting relationships with the Syrian Democratic Forces, formed by ideological, territorial, and strategic variations.

The Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military steadily engages in direct clashes with the Syrian Protection Forces, which Turkey views as a terrorist group and an offshoot of the Kurdistan Employees Social Gathering it has been preventing in southern Turkey for greater than 4 many years.

The opposition’s inner fragmentation might weaken its capacity to deliver stability to Syria in the long term.

Adjustment issues

Assad’s fall may have main implications for these international locations, which have a stake within the area.

Iran’s grand technique of preserving the “Shia Crescent”—connecting Tehran to Beirut by way of Baghdad and Damascus and within the course of countering Sunni Islamist factions—has failed.

For Washington, Assad’s departure doesn’t essentially match any hoped-for final result.

The US has prioritized balancing, containing, and doubtlessly diminishing Russian and Iranian influence in Syria. However, till just lately, that didn’t imply the removing of Assad. The Biden administration had even hinted in early December that it would be ready to raise sanctions on Syria if Assad severed ties with Iran and Hezbollah.

There was additionally discussion of Assad’s authorities allying with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. However, as metropolis after metropolis fell to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, it turned more and more unlikely that the Kurdish group would align with the weakening Assad forces—particularly as Kurdish forces themselves made important territorial good points.

Syrian Democratic Forces might want to adapt in response to the fall of Assad. This can be doubly true if, as many anticipate and President-elect Donald Trump has hinted at, the US withdraws from Syria. Presently, the 900 US troops are in japanese Syria, alongside a navy base in Al-Tanf, situated close to the Iraqi and Jordanian borders.

Ought to American forces withdraw, the Syrian Democratic Forces and the autonomous area it administers—generally known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria—would want to negotiate their autonomy with each completely different faction of the opposition and Syrian neighbor Turkey.

A Kurdish and Islamist alliance?

The precarious function of Syrian Democratic Forces within the transition to the post-Assad period might make for a major overseas coverage headache for the US.

Given Turkey’s historical past of navy incursions and campaigns towards the Syrian Democratic Forces in northern cities like Afrin and Kobani, the Kurdish group might must align with some factions of the opposition, seemingly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, ought to the US finally withdraw.

Of late, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has largely averted antagonizing the Syrian Democratic Forces. Certainly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s efforts to rebrand and average itself are notable, particularly given its origins as a Salafist group with ties to al-Qaida.

By adopting a spread of insurance policies like issuing an amnesty for Syrian military personnel, facilitating evacuation agreements, and utilizing the language of constructing an ethnically and religiously various governance construction, the Islamist group has tried to melt its hard-line picture and acquire favor—or at the very least neutrality—from worldwide stakeholders, just like the US.

But skepticism about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s final aims persists.

Strategic calculations for Turkey

Turkey’s place in Syria now’s equally complicated. Turkey is home to three.6 million Syrian refugees—the biggest refugee-hosting nation globally. A protracted financial downturn and rising anti-refugee sentiment had pressured Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to sign a willingness to have interaction with Assad prior to the opposition offensive.

Turkey’s hope was that normalized relations with Syria would facilitate refugee return and handle issues in a few potential Kurdish states in northeastern Syria.

However, Assad dismissed such overtures, and he intensified airstrikes on Idlib, triggering new waves of displacement close to the Turkish border.

Turkey’s Syria coverage can also be carefully linked to its renewed peace course with the Kurdistan Employees’ Social Gathering. These talks reportedly embrace discussions in regards to the potential launch of imprisoned Kurdistan Employees’ Social Gathering chief Abdullah Öcalan, whose affect runs deep in Kurdish-led areas in northern Syria.

The prospect for a brand new Syria

The obvious finish of the Assad household’s rule after half a century of brutal oppression signifies a pivotal second for Syria, providing a possibility to rebuild the nation on foundations of inclusivity, pluralism, and stability.

Reaching this imaginative and prescient level is determined by the opposition factions’ capacity to navigate the immense challenges of transition. This consists of fostering unity amongst various teams, addressing grievances from years of battle, and establishing governance buildings that replicate Syria’s ethnic, spiritual, and political variety. That can be no straightforward job.

Sefa Secen is assistant professor of worldwide and world research at Nazareth College

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