Trump’s second term could realign U.S. diplomacy more toward populist, authoritarian politicians, according to both those leaders and outside observers.
Donald Trump’s victory, according to Hungary’s furious right-wing leader, will aid his own fight against immigration and diversity and restore traditional family values.
The president of Argentina, who once gave Trump a bear embrace during a campaign gathering in Maryland, is denouncing his detractors as parasites and vermin, denouncing a corrupt elite, and labeling climate change as “a socialist lie.”
Both those leaders and outside analysts believe that Trump’s second term could shift U.S. diplomacy away from established foreign alliances and more toward populist, authoritarian politicians.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made a bold forecast two days prior to Tuesday’s election.
Orbán told state radio, “Donald Trump will be president again, which means pro-peace political forces will be in the majority in the West by the end of the year.”
The European Union has charged Orbán with destroying Hungary’s democracy by controlling the media and assembling a group of oligarchs who support him. By becoming closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he has alarmed world leaders.
What Orbán refers to as “illiberal democracy” has suppressed LGBTQ+ rights and discredited civil society groups. It supports holding onto power at the expense of the interests of longstanding Hungarian friends.
Trump has continuously talked well of Putin and has refrained from publicly criticizing him.
According to Nigel Gould-Davies of the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, “there is clearly that sort of authoritarian-minded chemistry” between them.
Trump’s love for other authoritarian leaders, some of whom were chosen by formerly democratic institutions, is consistent with that chemistry, Gould-Davies said, using Orbán’s Hungary as an example.
The Kremlin, which now has a military edge and about 20% of Ukrainian land, has praised Trump’s vow that he will end Russia’s conflict in Ukraine “within 24 hours.”
Given his demands that other NATO members achieve agreed-upon military spending levels and his threats that Russia may “do whatever the hell they want” to those who don’t, Moscow may be hoping that Trump will cause dysfunction in the alliance.
Before the election, Gould-Davies noted that Trump’s apparent desire for the war in Ukraine to conclude on terms that benefit Russia would make the Kremlin happy if he won. According to Gould-Davies, Trump’s reelection will imply “much less emphasis in American foreign policy on the importance and value of human rights,” which will embolden Putin and other authoritarian regimes.
One of the most popular and divisive political figures in his nation is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Once a fringe philosophy in India, Hindu nationalism has gained popularity under Modi, and the 74-year-old leader has done more to further this cause than anybody else.
Modi’s politics, according to some detractors, have caused division in India, particularly along religious lines. He was charged with employing hate speech against the nation’s Muslim minority, particularly during the latter stages of this year’s election campaign when he intensified his attacks on them.
Modi is seen by his followers as a political outsider who ended the nation’s dynastic political tradition. In addition to pledges to restructure India’s economy, his ascent has been aided by Hindu-first policies that have struck a chord with the nation’s 80% Hindu populace.
According to his detractors, Modi has weakened democracy and endangered India’s secular fabric, and over his more than ten years in office, his attacks on free speech and the media have intensified.
Similar to Trump, Erdogan uses populist rhetoric to portray himself as a defender of the common people against the elites and presents a strong image that puts the interests of the country first.
While Trump and Erdogan have developed a friendly connection, the Biden administration has maintained a distance from Erdogan’s leadership. This is true even if their nations have a number of conflicts, such as the 2019 removal of Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program by the Trump administration due to Ankara’s acquisition of a missile defense system manufactured in Russia.
President Javier Milei of Argentina
Like Trump, the Argentine president is brazen, criticizes multilateral organizations like the United Nations, and has a contemptuous attitude toward diplomacy, turning down talks with the heads of longstanding friends like Brazil and Spain.
Milei’s allegations that Argentina’s presidential election was rigged against him last year are, for many observers, the most concerning parallel. This, in addition to his attempts to minimize the horrors of Argentina’s brutal military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983, has sparked questions about his influence on democracy.
Milei shared a picture of the two guys cuddling in front of their countries’ flags on Instagram on Wednesday to congratulate Trump on winning the election.
The caption says, “You know you can count on Argentina to carry out your task.” “Now, restore America’s greatness.”
According to analysts, his financially constrained administration has been placing bets on a Trump victory because it desperately needs assistance from the United States, the largest stakeholder in the International Monetary Fund. Trump’s ability to compel the IMF into giving Argentina, its largest debtor, more loans is what Milei’s administration is counting on.
In order for Milei’s libertarian government to completely reenter the global economy and lift currency regulations, the fund is considering whether to lend Argentina further money. The IMF controversially gave Argentina, then governed by conservative President Mauricio Macri, a $57 billion bailout during Trump’s first term.
While U.S. institutions and the separation of powers are intended to prevent autocratic rule, Mariano Machado, principal analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence firm, stated that Argentina is currently returning to a phase where the very boundaries of its institutions are under pressure.
Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia
Despite being a communist, Fico has adopted Trump-like language.
Fico even likened the July assassination attempt on Trump to the May shooting in which he was wounded.
Fico stated, “It is a carbon-copy scenario.” “When political opponents of Donald Trump fail to imprison him, they infuriate the public to the point where a loser takes up arms.”
Similar to Trump, Fico has declared war on illegal immigration and shows disdain for the mainstream media. Fico has been charged with organized crime, which he has criticized as having political motivations. Ultimately, the case was dropped.
The Slovak leader has halted arms shipments to Kyiv and denounced the Western strategy in the conflict in Ukraine.
Like Orbán, Fico has stated that he would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and is well-known for his pro-Russian stance. He also opposes EU sanctions on Moscow.