The place does Iran stand on Syria’s fast-moving battle? | Israel assaults Lebanon Information

Tehran, Iran Iran has continued to voice help for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as opposition fighters keep it up with a blistering army offensive that goals to overthrow the federal government.

The overseas ministers of Iran, Russia, and Turkey held Astana-format talks, joined by United Nations representatives in Qatar on Saturday, as extra Syrian cities fell to the armed opposition teams.

Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi instructed reporters after the assembly in Doha that individuals agreed that the battle ought to finish and that political dialogue must be established between the Syrian authorities and “authentic opposition teams.”.

He met along with his Syrian and Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad a day earlier, their assertion saying “steady coordination, cooperation, and diplomatic engagement” is the one strategy to keep away from additional escalation.

At a joint information convention after the assembly, Iran’s prime diplomat mentioned his nation would stand with Syria towards teams that “are unquestionably finishing up an American-Zionist conspiracy.”.

Tehran has emphasised the concept that the rebels are foreign-supported in an obvious effort to stop this offensive from being seen as a mere continuation of the civil warfare in Syria, which had solidified al-Assad’s place after 13 years of preventing that destroyed a lot of the nation.

Iran has additionally issued stern warnings that preventing in Syria may unfold throughout the area, contemplating the excessive degree of rigidity amid Israel’s brutal warfare on Gaza.

Lightning offensive

The opposition offensive began last week, simply after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a shaky ceasefire deal that has held to this point regardless of quite a few violations.

It was launched from Idlib by the group controlling the governorate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), together with allied armed factions.

HTS’s chequered previous noticed it begin as al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra till its chief, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, embraced an extra nationalistic—somewhat transnational—mission and rebranded as HTS in 2017, ostensibly an extra “average” group amid the factions competing for Syria.

Interactive_Syria control map_December 6_0800GMT_2024-01-1733481739

Al-Julani has been at the forefront of a media marketing campaign emphasising HTS’s reformed methods, being filmed in public in Aleppo on a number of occasions, together with this week after an Iranian lawmaker proudly proclaimed in parliament that he had been killed in a Russian air strike.

He additionally launched movies of himself instantly addressing the individuals and leaders of Syria and the area and gave an interview to CNN on Friday and allowed it to report from Aleppo hours after the town was taken.

Requested why individuals ought to imagine his reforms whereas HTS stays designated a “terrorist” organisation by the UN, the US, and the EU—and there’s a $10 million reward on his head—he mentioned: “These classifications are primarily political and fallacious.”

He promised he would construct an “institutions-based” Syria that may recognise the nation’s ethnic, cultural, and sectarian diversities.

Iran and Turkey, in mild of Syria

The Iranian overseas ministry has been hesitant to publicly rebuke Ankara for its backing of HTS; however, Araghchi met along with his counterpart in Turkiye on Monday for a reportedly tense dialog prior to the talks on Saturday.

Ali Akbar Velayati, a longtime overseas coverage advisor to Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared in precise disbelief about Turkish help for the Syria offensive earlier this week.

“We didn’t suppose that Turkiye would fall within the gap dug” by the US and Israel, he mentioned, suggesting that the shifting actuality in Syria is Israeli and Western-backed and would hurt the entire Muslim world.

Nonetheless, Iranian state TV late on Friday began referring to the rebels as “armed teams” in an obvious coverage shift from calling them “terrorists.”.

Throughout an interview on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backed the insurgent offensive and mentioned he had contacted al-Assad to carry talks and discover an answer, but didn’t obtain an optimistic response.

“Idlib, Hama, Homs, and naturally, the last word goal is Damascus,” Erdogan mentioned. “Our hope is that this march in Syria proceeds with no accidents or troubles.”

Erdogan has been searching for to eradicate an armed Kurdish presence or territory on Turkey’s borders because the nation tries to resolve a longrunning wrestle towards armed Kurdish separatists, the outlawed PKK (Kurdistan Staff’s Occasion).

It additionally needs to ascertain a “secure zone” in northern Syria to resettle tens of millions of Syrian refugees presently in Turkey.

An anti-government fighter carries a rocket to be used against regime forces, in the northern outskirts of Syria's west-central city of Hama on December 4, 2024. - Syrian government forces pressed a counterattack against Islamist-led rebels around the key city of Hama on December 4 after suffering a string of staggering losses further north, a war monitor said. (Photo by Bakr AL KASSEM / AFP)
An operative preventing overthrow the al-Assad authorities carries a rocket within the northern outskirts of Hama on December 4, 2024 [Bakr Al Kassem/AFP]

Close to Iran’s borders to the north, Turkiye is supporting the Zangezur Hall, a proposed transport route linking Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakhchivan by means of Armenia’s Syunik Province, which might successfully join Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia.

If realised, the hall would sever a big Iranian path to Europe and bypass Armenian management.

Inside this context, a significant distinction between the persevering offensive in Syria and the battle that began in 2011 is the extent of overt help supplied to anti-Assad forces by Turkiye, Tehran-based political analyst Ehsan Movahedian mentioned.

“Whereas a lot of the preventing in the course of the civil warfare was pushed by ideology, the character of the preventing this time predominantly revolves around geopolitical objectives,” Movahedian instructed Al Jazeera.

“Turkiye is pursuing an array of geopolitical objectives, together with dealing a blow to the pursuits of Iran and the axis of resistance throughout the area, and reaping potential financial positive aspects by increasing its presence in northern Syria.”

Movahedian mentioned Ankara might inadvertently push Arab nations’ stance on Syria nearer to Iran since HTS has displayed “radical” considering through the years that doesn’t take pleasure in broad backing within the Arab and Islamic world.

What’s subsequent?

Iran’s Araghchi has threatened that Tehran may instantly ship troopers into Syria, without saying what circumstances would prompt Tehran to make that transfer.

The Iranian overseas ministry on Saturday denied studies that Tehran’s embassy in Damascus has been evacuated.

However, Tehran has not formally commented on media studies that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and another Iran-aligned fighter have evacuated Syria.

Particularly in these surroundings, sending in numerous troopers can be a big shift for Iran, which has to this point relied on proxy fighters and sending in senior commanders as “army advisers” somewhat than conserving Iranian boots on the bottom. No less than one Iranian normal has been killed in Syria for the reason that flareup of preventing final week.

Two generals and different senior IRGC personnel have been killed in Israeli air strikes for the beginning of the warfare on Gaza. One other prime IRGC commander was killed in Lebanon in late September, as he was in the identical bunker with assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

“Syria is on the point of collapse, and we’re watching coolly,” Tehran lawmaker Ahmad Naderi wrote in a post on X, echoing a sentiment that has been mirrored by state TV commentators as properly.

“If Damascus falls, we will even lose Lebanon and Iraq and should struggle with the enemy on our borders. We now have given a lot of blood to protect Syria.”

The MP added he doesn’t perceive why Iran shouldn’t be extra wanting to intervene; however, “no matter the reason being, it’s not the good thing about the nation, and one thing has to be achieved earlier than it’s too late.”.

Different members of the Iran-led axis of resistance—Hezbollah in Lebanon and armed factions in Iraq—have expressed their backing for al-Assad’s authorities.

However, regardless of movies circulating online that have purportedly proven tens of hundreds of troopers and heavy arms able to deploy to Syria from Iraq—and a few even coming into Syria—there was no official deployment.

Syrian rebels
Opposition factions continued their advance on Friday in the direction of Homs [İzettin Kasım/Anadolu Agency]

HTS, in an announcement late Friday, asserted that it might not invade Lebanon, and Al-Julani launched a video asking Iraqi forces to not enter Syria, prompting a pro-Iran Kataeb Hezbollah chief to accuse him of utilizing “Zionist-stricken mercenaries.”.

Iran and Russia would want to ship in main army help in the event that they need to revitalise al-Assad, in response to Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide and a Center East analyst on the Swedish Defence Analysis Company, who mentioned he’s “very sceptical” this may occur underneath present circumstances.

He added that sending Iranian troops to Syria would even be dangerous as a result of Israeli assaults on Iranian positions there, and Russia might not be ready to again them with vital air energy as a result of warfare in Ukraine.

“Whether or not Assad retains his regime afloat or not, Syria is unlikely to have a well-functioning central authority for some time.

“Components of Syria may degenerate into warring fiefdoms, with extremism, weapons, and refugees pouring out throughout the borders. There’s an actual danger of that, particularly alongside the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.”

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Sourcing information and pictures from aljazeera.com

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