Why Trump’s election puts future of U.S. support for Ukraine in doubt

Trump and his running mate JD Vance have openly railed against continuing American military and financial aid for Ukraine and have vowed to push a negotiated end to the war.

In addition to perhaps signaling the end of US assistance for Kyiv’s military effort, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could be a watershed moment for Ukraine in the fight against Russia’s invasion.

In addition to publicly denouncing the continuation of U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine, Trump and his running mate, Vice President-elect JD Vance, have pledged to pursue a negotiated end to the conflict, which may involve ceding Ukrainian territory that Russia has taken during its nearly three-year invasion of the nation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Trump on his victory Wednesday morning and said he is certain that they can work together to end the war. Zelenskyy has emphasized time and time again that Russia must be pressured into a peace agreement on Ukraine’s terms.

Zelenskyy posted on social media, “I admire President Trump’s dedication to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in international affairs. “Just peace in Ukraine can be practically achieved by adhering to this idea. I’m hoping we’ll work together to implement it.

Zelenskyy had written that he had congratulated Trump after speaking with him.

“We decided to continue our close communication and strengthen our partnership. He wrote, “The world and a just peace depend on strong and unwavering U.S. leadership.”

However, Zelenskyy might encounter a cold reception from Republicans in Washington, who are expected to control both chambers of Congress, after the Ukrainian president infuriated GOP lawmakers by publicly denouncing Trump and Vance and by traveling to the United States with Democrats during the election campaign.

Professor Oleksa Drachewych of Western University, who focuses on Russian and Ukrainian politics and history, warned that a great deal of uncertainty will shroud a lot of what happens.

The unpredictability arises as thousands of North Korean troops are arriving and Ukraine endures another winter of severe Russian missile barrages on vital infrastructure. For more than a year, the battle has been effectively at a standstill, and both sides have kept suffering losses.

In September, Zelenskyy met with Trump in New York, where he presented his “victory plan,” which calls for Ukraine to join NATO, all of the land that Russia had seized during the conflict to be returned, and Russian funding for Ukraine’s rehabilitation. According to the plan, Ukraine would build a domestic military industrial base that would eventually replace its reliance on Western weapons, and Ukrainian soldiers would serve as a new European defense line against Russia.

Both Trump and Zelenskyy reaffirmed their commitment to bringing the war to a close and their trust in their relationship after the meeting, but Trump also mentioned his “good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Despite being directly questioned several times, Trump has merely stated that “I want this war to stop” and that he would pressure Zelenskyy and Putin to negotiate a peace agreement, without specifically stating if he wants Ukraine to win the conflict with Russia.

Vance has been more explicit about what he believes that agreement should include, and it complies with Russia’s requests.

In order to avert a future invasion, Vance stated in a September podcast interview that the existing front line may be turned into a demilitarized area that is “heavily fortified.” This would require the surrender of a large portion of the territory that Russia has seized since 2022. According to him, Ukraine would also need to pledge its neutrality, which would include refusing to join NATO and other “allied institutions.”

That, in my opinion, is how this (peace agreement) ultimately seems,” Vance remarked. By the way, some Ukrainian rehabilitation must be financed by Germany and other nations.

According to Drachewych, Vance’s plan would sentence the Donbas’ Ukrainian population, many of whom are against Russia’s illegitimate takeover of their territory in 2022, to even more oppression. The forcible expulsion and reeducation of Ukrainian families and children from the Donbas by Russia is being looked into by the international world, including Canada.

In the best situation, resistance will be present there, Drachewych stated. “We will simply be kicking the ball down the street a little bit farther, but Ukraine will still always want that territory.”

“I’m constantly curious about what enduring peace looks like. And regrettably, that is a far more difficult conversation.

In September, Zelenskyy told The New Yorker that Trump “doesn’t really know how to stop the war, even if he might think he knows how” and that Vance was “too radical.”

When the Ukrainian president visited an armaments facility in Pennsylvania in September with the Democratic governor of the state and other lawmakers who were not Republicans, he infuriated Republicans even more. Zelenskyy was encouraged to dismiss the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States for what he described as “election interference” in a crucial swing state by U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, the leading Republican in Congress.

Zelenskyy’s actions, according to Republicans, would be “counterproductive” to his attempts to obtain future U.S. aid from Congress, which is anticipated to be entirely controlled by Republicans following Tuesday’s elections, Fox News said.

The United States, Ukraine’s largest military supporter, has contributed tens of billions of dollars in armaments and spearheaded global initiatives to financially and politically isolate Moscow. Ukraine’s defense has become a primary foreign policy concern for U.S. President Joe Biden.

According to the Kiel Institute’s tracker of global Ukraine support, Europe has provided more aid to Ukraine overall than the United States, as a percentage of GDP.

However, Trump, Vance, and some of their more conservative congressional Republican allies have maintained that U.S. aid would be better used to address domestic economic problems and that extending the war will only benefit American defense contractors while pressuring Russia to develop nuclear weapons.

Global News
Global News

Despite the Republican hardliners’ protests, Johnson was able to negotiate with Democrats as Speaker to pass more funding. The final supplemental aid measure made some of the humanitarian aid loanable and added provisions for a clear victory plan.

In order to maintain some aid flow, Drachewych said Zelenskyy and his administration might need to make more compromises to Trump, such as more loans.

He said that Canada will need to keep taking the lead in the interim on matters like humanitarian assistance and bringing separated Ukrainian families back together.

In the wake of Trump’s triumph, Melanie Joly, the foreign affairs minister, told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday that she had spoken with Antony Blinken, the departing U.S. secretary of state and her Ukrainian counterpart.

She would not answer whether a Trump administration would make it more difficult to settle international problems like the war in Ukraine the way Canada may wish.

“We all desire peace and stability, but we also recognize that Ukrainians are fighting for our freedom as well as ours,” she remarked.

On Telegram, opposition Ukrainian legislator Yaroslav Zheleznyak suggested that Biden may use the period until Trump assumes office in January as “a window of opportunity” to take “bold steps” to earn more support for Ukraine.

Kyiv has put pressure on the Biden administration to provide weaponry more quickly and to allow it to use long-range missiles supplied by the United States to attack Russian territory, something Biden has been hesitant to do thus far.

Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian MP, told Global News that he believed Trump would want to find a method to keep his legacy untarnished.

“It would already be Trump’s disaster if (there is) a disaster and Ukraine falls, just as Afghanistan became Biden’s disaster,” he stated.

Source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *